I'm not surprised that Kamala Harris lost to Donald Trump. I'm not mad either just disappointed. I never got caught up in all the hype around Vice President Harris's candidacy because positive press coverage and polls aren't votes they don't win elections. Trump turned out his base and expanded his support even in Democratic cities. It's a fact he got more votes among Hispanics and I suspect blacks too including young men.
I can already hear the " anvil chorus " of Moderates and Progressives who will argue that Kamala Harris and Democrats are out of touch with working class people. The Moderates will say Democrats must move to the Right on Immigration and crime. Progressives will claim that Harris lacked a strong pro working class populist message. Both these camps decry identity politics and " wokeness " with the implication being if Democrats wouldn't focus on racism, abortion, and LGBTQ issues then somehow socially conservative working class men would vote for them. I don't think that's true.
Call me one of those out of touch elitist Liberals. I can only wish I had that kind of money and power. It wasn't inept Democrats, Billionaires, or Fox News that got Trump elected to another term. Millions of people voted for him. I think they were wrong to say the least. However writing them off as a bunch of deplorable, ignorant, xenophobic, misogynistic, racists, might be partly true for some of them; but it's grossly unfair to the majority.
What happened ? Why did Trump win?
Here's what I think :
1. A pro working class populist message isn't enough. Harris talked about fighting for the middle class and gave some good policy specifics. But that didn't matter to people getting hammered by inflation. They don't care about rich people or corporations. For them it's not about economic fairness or government doing anything to help them. It's about basic survival. High prices take more money out of people’s pockets who don't have enough. Furthermore, in a country built on individualism and skepticism of government it's difficult if not impossible to advance a class based politics. The Progressive Left needs to think about this.
2. People don't care about policies, data, or information. They want easy answers quickly. Above all they want leaders who make them feel good. In fact lies and conspiracy theories are more comforting than truth or reality for lots of people. Nobody cares about so called experts. More people than ever disdain college and higher education. Trump approaches his supporters and others this way. He says things many people are afraid to in public, and Trump doesn't fear cancelation or the establishment. That's powerful and compelling. He's a xenophobic, racist, with authoritarian tendencies; but as far as his supporters are concerned he's honest even heroic. Feelings are everything.
3. Trump gives people enemies whether they are immigrants, criminals, or establishment politicians in both parties. Our immigration system is broken, and we can't take everyone whose trying to come. However we are a nation built on Immigration while violently opposed to it at the same time. Trump plays on that contradiction better than any politician in recent memory. And like all Rightwing Republicans before him he effectively ties Democrats to crime. He pushes the narrative and paints the picture of chaos in the streets. Robbers, rapists, and murderers who threaten the lives and property of ordinary Americans. Trump often claims they are immigrants too. People are rightly afraid and angry. Trump says he's your protector unlike Democrats who supposedly hate and defund police. Lastly, there's the political establishment that most Americans already view as self seeking, ineffective, and untrustworthy. Trump claims leaders from both parties have undermined and betrayed the country. Ironically his anti politician style of outsider politics works. Whatever he is Trump isn't a Washington politician. Millions of Americans support him for that reason.
4. There's nothing wrong with self interest, but there's a very thin line between self interest and selfishness. When we stop caring about the well-being of other people, community, country, and our democracy that's a huge problem. But when you're hurting, feeling excluded, or disrespected it's easy to lose sight of other people and things. We all get desperate for help or solutions sometimes. For millions of people Trump is seen as the one to bring down high prices, stop immigrants from coming to their communities, validate their cherished beliefs, and provide strong leadership in a troubled world. It simply doesn't matter to them if he's a convicted felon, a man who assaults women, or disdains democracy. " He's going to help me. " That's what matters most.
5. I may be way off base without any statistics or data to back up my claims here. It's just my opinion. This election proves that Moderates and Independents are not going to save our politics or democracy. If a lot of them especially in swing states had not broke for Trump, Kamala Harris might have won. The conventional wisdom is that Moderation and nonpartisanship can solve our problems and contain extremes on the left and right. We're told that most Americans are in the middle. None of this is true. Conservatives are the single largest group with Moderates coming in second. Furthermore, Moderates are often closer to Conservatives on issues like the role of government, taxes, and social spending. While they may agree with the left on social issues most Moderates don't actually vote on those things. They would rather avoid the culture wars. In this case neither Moderates or Independents even cared enough about democracy to support Vice President Harris. I never believed they could move us beyond Congressional gridlock and partisan bickering. The so called virtues of Moderation and Independence didn't stop Trump which means they are not a viable solution to our broken politics.
After an utter defeat like this it's tempting to give in to despair and hate before dropping out. Those of us truly committed to Liberalism can't be that way because this loss is the price of freedom. Trump and the Republicans have the right to govern. Our dislike doesn't make them illegitimate or mean democracy is a bad system. We must go back and try again through grassroots activism, advocacy, ideas, policies, and the democratic process.